Is Travis Kelce headed for a shocking decline? Analyst warns Chiefs star could become a non-factor this season

Travis Kelce is an NFL anomaly. History-and some analysts-say the Kansas City Chiefs’ star tight end should be retired or on the downside of his performance curve by now.

The question for head coach Andy Reid is whether Kelce can continue defying time at age 35, or if this season will mark his inevitable downturn.

The younger Kelce brother made his NFL debut 11 years ago after being picked by the Chiefs in the third round, 63rd overall. Since then, the University of Cincinnati product has been a key part of the team’s three Super Bowl wins in the past five years.

Kelce’s career, however, is a statistical outlier. According to the numbers, the vast majority of tight ends retire before age 34, and those who continue to play after that tend to no longer be significant factors for their teams.

There are only a few exceptions to this rule, which is precisely why they’ve become legends: Ben Watson, Shannon Sharpe, Antonio Gates, and Kelce’s predecessor with the Chiefs, Tony Gonzalez.

Is Kelce’s fate already sealed?
Yahoo Sports Senior Writer Frank Schwab noted that no tight end has surpassed 1,000 yards after turning 35 in the Super Bowl era. Gonzalez came the closest, totaling 900 yards at that age. Watson, Sharpe, and Gates barely surpassed 700 yards after 35.

With Kelce set to turn 35 this October, he could very well be the exception to the rule. After all, in the 2023 season, the Chiefs star fell just 16 yards short of the 1,000-yard mark.

At 34, Kelce caught 93 passes, scored five touchdowns, and racked up 984 yards. However, it’s worth noting that he sat out the final two games of the regular season at the behest of head coach Andy Reid, who preferred to preserve his star heading into the playoffs.

In the end, Reid’s strategy paid off, and Kelce was a crucial piece in the run that culminated in the victory at Super Bowl LVIII. Although Schwab advises against betting against Kelce for the 2024 season, he also warned, “Based on the history of NFL tight ends, he’s supposed to be retired or a non-factor by now.”

Is Kelce’s role already in decline?
Pete Retzlaff is the only tight end over 34 to surpass the 1,000-yard mark, racking up 1,190 yards in 1965 with the Philadelphia Eagles. If things continue as they are for Kelce, Retzlaff’s record appears safe, as the Chiefs star seems unlikely to reach that milestone.

With each passing year, Reid is managing Kelce’s playing time more carefully. In 2023, Kelce participated in just 78% of the offense’s snaps, a significant drop from the 95% he was logging until 2018. Reid’s reasoning is to keep his star as fresh as possible for the postseason.

Kelce himself understands that this is the best approach. “As much as I want to be out there every single play, I understand that it’s for the betterment of the team when I’m not,” he admitted in an interview with FOX 4.

The question remains: Will Kelce continue defying history, or will he join the ranks of tight ends who faded into obscurity in their mid-30s?