Lewis Hamilton has good reason to be optimistic after the first two race weekends of the Formula 1 season with Ferrari.

The seven-time world champion has finally bagged his first grand prix podium for Ferrari at a record 26th attempt, and the team look in increasingly good shape to lead a championship charge to current front runners Mercedes.

However, we have hit a rather unwanted anniversary for Hamilton in that it marks exactly one year since his last win.

Lewis Hamilton hasn’t won a grand prix since July 28, 2024 when he defaulted into victory following the disqualification of Mercedes team-mate George Russell in Belgium.

But it is one year including sprint races, so Hamilton’s last win was in the 2025 China sprint on March 22, 2025, where at the time it looked like his Ferrari career was ready to kick on with an outside shot of championship success.

Just over 24 hours later, Ferrari were disqualified from the weekend’s grand prix after a technical infringement and the team didn’t recover for the rest of the season – evidenced by Hamilton not seeing a top three finish again for the rest of the year.

Despite all the positivity around Maranello, it should not be forgotten that while Ferrari are most likely to threaten Mercedes for the world championship, they have not got close to denying the Silver Arrows so far.

George Russell strolled to victory in Australia after an early battle with Charles Leclerc, while Kimi Antonelli was never really troubled after passing Hamilton to take the lead of the Chinese Grand Prix last time out before scampering to his first ever F1 win. Hamilton was fourth in Australia and third in China.

So as we head into round three at the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka on March 29, this could be the track that finally brings the top step of the podium for Hamilton once again.

Like China, the technical layout does favour Ferrari’s SF-26, and was part of the reason it was a bit closer to Mercedes in Shanghai compared to the season opener in Melbourne. Otherwise there isn’t too much in the track’s nature that will give Ferrari an added speed advantage.

But there is one trend from Australia and China that does give Ferrari a much better chance of victory at Suzuka, and that concerns its race starts.

It’s evident that Ferrari’s rocket starts are still too much for their rivals. Despite not qualifying on pole in either of the first two rounds, Leclerc and Hamilton have both found themselves leading into the first corner in both races.

Now in Australia, Russell was kept at bay for a large portion of the race before eventually taking the lead. In China, Antonelli only needed the second lap to blast back Hamilton after losing the lead at the first corner.

The Japanese Grand Prix has a double benefit to Ferrari. They are set to have more pace in Japan to battle Mercedes than in Australia. Merc’s disadvantage in China concerned the track, one built to promote as much overtaking as possible given it’s two long straights. Suzuka does have overtaking spots but none as slam dunk as Shanghai.

Suzuka is twisting, challenging everything you would expect from a test track designed by Honda. It’s a track for the greats and that includes Hamilton who has four wins there. Ferrari have good things stacked in their favour to give Mercedes a bloody nose.

Now, Mercedes will still be favourites. But with a superb start, and improved pace on a track where overtaking is not as easy as in China, Ferrari have enough about them to hold off Russell and Antonelli and grab their first grand prix victory since October 27, 2024 with Carlos Sainz in Mexico.

Over to the Ferrari strategists to see if they can finally outmanoeuvre the Mercedes juggernaut and hand Hamilton a maiden Ferrari grand prix win.